IHS Markit projects that the market for physical electronic access control solutions had grown to over $5.2 billion in 2018. The market has experienced stable and predictable growth rates that have hovered around 6 percent over the past several years. Electronic locks remain both the largest, and the fastest growing, product type in access control, representing nearly 40% of the global market size for all access control equipment.
While market growth rates have been consistent, technological developments had dramatically impacted the market in 2018. The most prominent trend involves mobile credentials, which are poised to revolutionise the longstanding business model for access control system sales. The mobile credentials market was still in its infancy in 2018, but many end-users are already anticipating a transition to these credentials by installing compatible readers in their systems. By 2020, over 10 percent of all new readers sold in the market will be compatible with mobile credentials.
Other trends to watch in latter part of 2019 and beyond include Access Control as a Service (ACaaS), which allow end-users to avoid the need to invest in costly on-site IT infrastructures to support their access control equipment. ACaaS solutions will be particularly popular to support small and mid-sized projects that service less than fifty doors. In addition, Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) beacons will support geopositioning in an increasing number of the world’s most advanced access control systems. Through geopositioning, the exact location of specific personnel can be identified at any site in real-time.
The top fifteen access control vendors represent more than half of the total size of the global access control market, but there are pockets of opportunity for new vendors, particularly to accommodate small and mid-sized projects. The mobile credential and ACaaS markets will also be highly competitive in 2019 and should attract an influx of new market entrants.